Big Hole River grayling: cooked for another year

Today's grayling survival index is -102.5, based on a flow at Wisdom (see http://waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/uv?06024450) of 19 cfs (cubic feet per second). This is not even what biologists consider a "survival flow" that allows fish to escape being stranded in pools. Any gain from spawning and recruitment will likely be lost to a dewatered river. [see below for explanation of the grayling survival index calculation]

Flows have went low very early this year with what appears to be little or no general effort to conserve water. Expect grayling populations to nose down even lower. The Big Hole Watershed Committee has implemented its so-called "Drought Management Plan," but does not seem to be able to demonstrate any water savings and increased flows.

Hard questions that the Big Hole Watershed Committee and other responsible parties need to ask:

1. How efficient is water use in the upper Big Hole Basin? E.g. is it really necessary to saturate meadows day-after-day?

2. Has the overuse of water harmed agricultural productivity? E.g. has overuse shifted grass hay production to less nutritious sedges? And has overuse lowered soil productivity through leaching or binding of nutrients?

3. How large a role has the shift in agricultural methods from hay production to season-long pasture grazing played in the chronic and increasingly severe dewatering of the upper river?

4. Does the myth of return flows play a role in the overuse of water?

5. Should a private group be dictating water management and recreational (i.e. fishing) policy?

6. Are water rights an absolute private property right?

Don't expect answers to these questions. The Big Hole Watershed Committee appears to have a very narrow comfort zone. No matter how scientific or data-based a question might be, it is a "non-question" whenever it challenges myth or well-established practice. E.g. it is a myth that the more water you use, the more hay is produced. Never mind good agronomical evidence that too much water actually decreases grass production (and harms soil, and shift grasses over to sedges).

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EXPLANATION OF THE GRAYLING SURVIVAL INDEX:Less than 0 means a loss of grayling; 0 means minimum sustainable level; 100 means maximum survival.For this blog, the flow of the Big Hole River at Wisdom, Montana, provides an index of how well the Big Hole Watershed Committee is doing in its efforts toward water conservation and grayling restoration. Today, the Watershed Committee is doing a lousy job.According to fisheries biologists, the upper wetted perimeter at Wisdom is 160 cfs (cubic feet per second). The lower wetted perimeter is 60 cfs. The minimum "survival flow" is 20 cfs. This "survival flow" is not scientifically based, but it is the flow level that fisheries biologists "feel" allows grayling the ability to escape warm water and to seek cold water refugia (tributary streams).Criteria for grayling survival index ratings:*At 160 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival is rated at 100. At this level, the streambed is fully wetted or bank-full. This level allows grayling the maximum use of stream "pasture" for foraging, hiding, spawning, etc. This level maximizes grayling recovery.*At 60 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival is rated at 0. At this level, the streambed is minimally wetted. This level allows grayling to maintain their population. This level does not aid in the recovery or increase of the grayling population. At best, this level might maintain the current population level. Below this level, the streambed rapidly becomes dry and thus barren of aquatic life.*At 20 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival will be rated at -100. At this level, some grayling will be able to move to cold water refugia (tributaries), but many will perish due to lack of cover, exposure to predators (such as pelicans), and high water temperatures. For stream flows above 60 cfs, the grayling survival index = y = mx + b = x - 60. For stream flows below 60 cfs, the grayling survival index = y = mx + b = 2.5x - 150. Thus, today's grayling survival index = 2.5(19) - 150) = -102.5.

Big Hole River grayling: Big Hole Watershed Committee fails

Today's grayling survival index is -92.5, based on a flow at Wisdom (see http://waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/uv?06024450) of 23 cfs (cubic feet per second). [see below for explanation of the grayling survival index calculation]

The Big Hole Watershed Committee's so-called "Drought Management Plan" mandates an arbitrarily defined 20 cfs as the level at which voluntary sanctions kick in. Flows declined rapidly and then held steady just above 20 cfs. This appears to be a cynical effort to keep flows above the sanction trigger level, while maintaining flows that are so low that there is no biological evidence that they support even minimal grayling survival.

Many people responded to the photos on last week's post (Friday, June 22, 2007). Most were very supportive and expressed their outrage and concern. A few thought I was being too hard on ranchers, and ought not to make a public issue of this. My response: (1) I do not intend to criticize any individual.* My criticism is aimed at the myth that the Big Hole Watershed Committee successfully manages water for grayling; and (2) Public criticism is absolutely necessary. The Big Hole Watershed Committee has received millions of dollars in federal funding, and yet the group is not held accountable for demonstrating any outcomes based on this federal funding.

* As I explained in my book Montana's Last Best River: The Big Hole River and its People (Lyons Press, 2001), there are some individual ranchers that take extraordinary measures and sacrifice their own bottom line to support grayling. Unfortunately, the heroic efforts of these few individuals have simply been inadequate to deal with dewatering and habitat damage on a landscape level (the river at Wisdom drains about 575 square miles, or about 360,000 acres).

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EXPLANATION OF THE GRAYLING SURVIVAL INDEX:
Less than 0 means a loss of grayling; 0 means minimum sustainable level; 100 means maximum survival.For this blog, the flow of the Big Hole River at Wisdom, Montana, provides an index of how well the Big Hole Watershed Committee is doing in its efforts toward water conservation and grayling restoration. Today, the Watershed Committee is doing a lousy job.

According to fisheries biologists, the upper wetted perimeter at Wisdom is 160 cfs (cubic feet per second). The lower wetted perimeter is 60 cfs. The minimum "survival flow" is 20 cfs. This "survival flow" is not scientifically based, but it is the flow level that fisheries biologists "feel" allows grayling the ability to escape warm water and to seek cold water refugia (tributary streams).

Criteria for grayling survival index ratings:*
At 160 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival is rated at 100. At this level, the streambed is fully wetted or bank-full. This level allows grayling the maximum use of stream "pasture" for foraging, hiding, spawning, etc. This level maximizes grayling recovery.*
At 60 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival is rated at 0. At this level, the streambed is minimally wetted. This level allows grayling to maintain their population. This level does not aid in the recovery or increase of the grayling population. At best, this level might maintain the current population level. Below this level, the streambed rapidly becomes dry and thus barren of aquatic life.*

At 20 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival will be rated at -100. At this level, some grayling will be able to move to cold water refugia (tributaries), but many will perish due to lack of cover, exposure to predators (such as pelicans), and high water temperatures. For stream flows above 60 cfs, the grayling survival index = y = mx + b = x - 60. For stream flows below 60 cfs, the grayling survival index = y = mx + b = 2.5x - 150. Thus, today's grayling survival index = 2.5(23) - 150) = -92.5.

Big Hole River grayling survival index GOES NEGATIVE (22June07)

Today's grayling survival index is -25, based on a flow at Wisdom (see http://waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/uv?06024450) of 50 cfs (cubic feet per second). [see below for explanation of the grayling survival index calculation]

Flows in the upper river have dropped like a rock, despite wetter-than-normal weather. Cattle are standing in water on the irrigated hay meadows while grayling die for lack of water.

A cow fording a flooded hay meadow near Wisdom:

This is not a creek--this is a flooded place in an irrigated hay meadow. Cattle are drowning while grayling are going extinct. Where is the Big Hole Watershed Committee? What about the group's so-called "Drought Management Plan?"

Cattle in a flooded pasture near Wisdom:

Also, note the dead willow clump to the right of the cow facing the camera. Is this wise use of water?

Cattle along an overgrazed, collapsing, eroded bank on a creek near Wisdom:

These ruined banks cause the creek to become wider, shallower, and warmer. They cause siltation of the streambed. This is on a creek that FWP biologists say is a refuge for grayling when the river becomes too low and warm. THIS IS WHY BIG HOLE RIVER GRAYLING ARE GOING EXTINCT.

Noah Greenwald of the Center for Biological Diversity toured the Big Hole with me yesterday. He was appalled to see flooded hay meadows and cattle wading through water while the Big Hole River flows are below survival levels for grayling. So much for the Big Hole Watershed Committee's ability to gain cooperation for water conservation.

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EXPLANATION OF THE GRAYLING SURVIVAL INDEX:

Less than 0 means a loss of grayling; 0 means minimum sustainable level; 100 means maximum survival.

For this blog, the flow of the Big Hole River at Wisdom, Montana, provides an index of how well the Big Hole Watershed Committee is doing in its efforts toward water conservation and grayling restoration. Today, the Watershed Committee is doing a lousy job.

According to fisheries biologists, the upper wetted perimeter at Wisdom is 160 cfs (cubic feet per second). The lower wetted perimeter is 60 cfs. The minimum "survival flow" is 20 cfs. This "survival flow" is not scientifically based, but it is the flow level that fisheries biologists "feel" allows grayling the ability to escape warm water and to seek cold water refugia (tributary streams).

Criteria for grayling survival index ratings:*

At 160 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival is rated at 100. At this level, the streambed is fully wetted or bank-full. This level allows grayling the maximum use of stream "pasture" for foraging, hiding, spawning, etc. This level maximizes grayling recovery.*

At 60 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival is rated at 0. At this level, the streambed is minimally wetted. This level allows grayling to maintain their population. This level does not aid in the recovery or increase of the grayling population. At best, this level might maintain the current population level. Below this level, the streambed rapidly becomes dry and thus barren of aquatic life.*

At 20 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival will be rated at -100. At this level, some grayling will be able to move to cold water refugia (tributaries), but many will perish due to lack of cover, exposure to predators (such as pelicans), and high water temperatures. For stream flows above 60 cfs, the grayling survival index = y = mx + b = x - 60. For stream flows below 60 cfs, the grayling survival index = y = mx + b = 2.5x - 150. Thus, today's grayling survival index = 2.5(50) - 150) = -25.

Big Hole River grayling survival index (19.June)

Today's grayling survival index is 28, based on a flow at Wisdom (see http://waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/uv?06024450) of 88 cfs (cubic feet per second).

0 = minimum survival; 100 = maximum survival

Flows in the upper river are dropping like a rock, despite wetter-than-normal weather. Cattle are standing in water on the irrigated hay meadows while grayling are losing out.

For this blog, the flow of the Big Hole River at Wisdom, Montana, provides an index of how well the Big Hole Watershed Committee is doing in its efforts toward water conservation and grayling restoration. Today, the Watershed Committee is doing a lousy job.

According to fisheries biologists, the upper wetted perimeter at Wisdom is 160 cfs (cubic feet per second). The lower wetted perimeter is 60 cfs. The minimum "survival flow" is 20 cfs. This "survival flow" is not scientifically based, but it is the flow level that fisheries biologists "feel" allows grayling the ability to escape warm water and to seek cold water refugia (tributary streams).

Criteria for grayling survival index ratings:*

At 160 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival is rated at 100. At this level, the streambed is fully wetted or bank-full. This level allows grayling the maximum use of stream "pasture" for foraging, hiding, spawning, etc. This level maximizes grayling recovery.*

At 60 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival is rated at 0. At this level, the streambed is minimally wetted. This level allows grayling to maintain their population. This level does not aid in the recovery or increase of the grayling population. At best, this level might maintain the current population level. Below this level, the streambed rapidly becomes dry and thus barren of aquatic life.*

At 20 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival will be rated at -100. At this level, some grayling will be able to move to cold water refugia (tributaries), but many will perish due to lack of cover, exposure to predators (such as pelicans), and high water temperatures.

For stream flows above 60 cfs, the grayling survival index = y = mx + b = x - 60.For stream flows below 60 cfs, the grayling survival index = y = mx + b = 2.5x - 150. Thus, today's grayling survival index = (88 - 60) = 28.

18 June Big Hole River grayling survival index

Today's grayling survival index is 48,
based on a flow at Wisdom (see http://waterdata.usgs.gov/mt/nwis/uv?06024450) of 108 cfs (cubic feet per second).

For this blog, the flow of the Big Hole River at Wisdom, Montana, will be used as an index to how well the Big Hole Watershed Committee is doing in its efforts toward water conservation and grayling restoration.

According to fisheries biologists, the upper wetted perimeter at Wisdom is 160 cfs (cubic feet per second). The lower wetted perimeter is 60 cfs. The minimum "survival flow" is 20 cfs. This "survival flow" is not scientifically based, but it is the flow level that fisheries biologists "feel" allows grayling the ability to escape warm water and to seek cold water refugia (tributary streams).

Criteria for grayling survival index ratings:

*At 160 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival will be rated at 100. At this level, the streambed is fully wetted or bank-full. This level allows grayling the maximum use of stream "pasture" for foraging, hiding, spawning, etc. This level maximizes grayling recovery.

* At 60 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival will be rated at 0. At this level, the streambed is minimally wetted. This level allows grayling to maintain their population. This level does not aid in the recovery or increase of the grayling population. At best, this level might maintain the current population level. Below this level, the streambed rapidly becomes dry and thus barren of aquatic life.

* At 20 cfs, grayling recruitment and survival will be rated at -100. At this level, some grayling will be able to move to cold water refugia (tributaries), but many will perish due to lack of cover, exposure to predators (such as pelicans), and high water temperatures.

For stream flows above 60 cfs, the grayling survival index = y = mx + b = x - 60.

For stream flows below 60 cfs, the grayling survival index = y = mx + b = 2.5x - 150.

Thus, today's grayling survival index = (108 - 60) = 48.